Want to know who the next president will be?
Every four years since 2000, 7-Eleven has conducted a coffee cup poll, with the sales of candidate-branded coffee cups correctly predicting the actual winner in November three times in a row. Sales of Halloween masks of the two major-party candidates have predicted the next president since 1996, and the Scholastic News poll of students has been right 16 of the last 18 elections, going back to 1940.
We have a natural ability to find patterns?even made-up ones?in the noise of the universe. People like the idea that one factor can encapsulate the thousands of data points that go into the real election. It's all nonsense, of course. While we might expect something like coffee cups or mask sales to loosely align with the real outcome, the fact that these trends have a winning streak going is pure luck. In a crowded field of numbers, some events will randomly align with the results of the American presidential election (or the stock market, the planets, pistachio sales, whatever).
And that's how we got the Redskins Rule, a prediction that has a tradition of accuracy even better than Scholastic's survey. It goes like this:
If the Washington Redskins win their last home game before the election, the incumbent party retains the White House. Otherwise, the out-of-power party wins.
This pattern has failed only once since 1940, though which year it failed is something of a debate on Wikipedia, depending whether one honors a retroactive change to the rule to recognize the winner of the popular vote.
To belabor the point that these rules are just coincidences, I concocted a rule for every NFL franchise. (Well, I exploited a computer to try every combination for me.) For example, here is the Broncos Rule:
If Denver rushes for more than 106 yards in its fifth game of the season, the incumbent party wins. Otherwise, the out-of-power party wins.
This rule has held for every election since the Denver Broncos' first season in 1960, when the Broncos ran for 104 yards on 22 carries against the Los Angeles Chargers on Oct. 16, dooming Richard Nixon and turning the White House over to the Democrats.
Here is the Patriots Rule, true for 12 of the past 13 elections:
If New England commits fewer turnovers than its opponent in the team's first away game, the out-of-power party will win the White House. Otherwise, the incumbent party wins.
When I presented my findings to Steve Hirdt, the Elias Sports Bureau executive who discovered the Redskins Rule in 2000, he wasn't impressed.
His rule, he pointed out, uses only "the simplest of statistics and involves the team you would want it to involve"?that is, Washington's team. It also occurs right before the election.
For a team that's been around since 1960, the odds of any statistic matching up every four years with the election results is only 1 in 4,096. That's 12 coin flips in a row all landing on heads. (There have been 13 elections since 1960, but the first year is a freebie because it establishes the trend.) To find a rule for every franchise, I had to start concocting absurd combinations of game statistics, giving way to rules like the 49ers Rule:
If San Francisco scores at least 1.5 points for every completion in its third home game of the season, the Democrat wins. Otherwise, the Republican wins.
The odds of the Redskins Rule being true 17 out of 18 times, if you figure there's an average of a 50-50 chance that either candidate wins over time, are about 1 in 14,500.
But it is impossible that there is any actual connection between the Redskins and national politics. Right?
Unless you have a persuasive theory for why the Redskins Rule is nonrandom?and I'd love to hear it?we have to conclude that we are very lucky to live in a universe where the odds of so simple a rule working out came true. In the meantime, here are the less elegant rules for every other franchise. The data comes from Pro-Football-Reference.com.
| team | rule | streak |
| The 49ers Rule: If San Francisco scores at least 1.5 points for every completion in its third home game of the season, the Democrat wins. Otherwise, the Republican wins. | 13/13 | |
| ? | This year: vs. Buffalo on Oct. 7 | ? |
| The Bears Rule: If, in Chicago's fourth game, more than 5 percent of the quarterback's completions are for touchdowns, the Democrat wins. Otherwise, the Republican wins. | 13/13 | |
| ? | This year: at Dallas on Oct. 1 | ? |
| The Bengals Rule: If Cincinnati posts more than 300 total yards of offense in its third home game, the incumbent party wins the White House. Otherwise, the out-of-power party wins. | 11/11 | |
| ? | This year: vs. Pittsburgh on Oct. 12 | ? |
| The Bills Rule: If the opposing team in Buffalo's second home game throws for more than 160 yards, the Republican wins the election. Otherwise, the Democrat wins. | 13/13 | |
| ? | This year: vs. New England on Sept. 30 | ? |
| The Broncos Rule: If Denver rushes for at least 106 yards in its fifth game, the incumbent party wins. Otherwise, the out-of-power party wins. | 13/13 | |
| ? | This year: at New England on Oct. 7 | ? |
| The Browns Rule: If Cleveland does not throw an interception in its third home game, the Democrat wins. Otherwise, the Republican wins. | 14/14 | |
| ? | This year: vs. Cincinnati on Oct. 14 | ? |
| The Buccaneers Rule: If Tampa Bay scores more than 14 points in its fourth game, the out-of-power party wins the White House. Otherwise, the incumbent party wins. | 9/9 | |
| ? | This year: vs. Washington on Sept. 30 | ? |
| The Cardinals Rule: If Arizona averages more than 18.2 yards per first down in its fifth-to-last game before the election, the out-of-power party wins. Otherwise, the incumbent party retains the White House. | 17/17 | |
| ? | This year: at St. Louis on Oct. 4 | ? |
| The Chargers Rule: If San Diego runs for an odd number of yards in its third away game, the incumbent party holds the White House. Otherwise, the out-of-power party wins. | 13/13 | |
| ? | This year: at New Orleans on Oct. 7 | ? |
| The Chiefs Rule: If Kansas City's opponent in the Chiefs' second game runs at least 7.2 yards for every point it scores, the Democrat wins. Otherwise, the Republican wins. | 13/13 | |
| ? | Romney wins: The Bills averaged 5.7 rush yards per point on Sept. 16. | ? |
| The Colts Rule: If Indianapolis has more sacks than turnovers in its first home game, the Democrat wins. Otherwise, the Republican wins. | 13/13 | |
| ? | Obama wins: The Colts sacked the Vikings four times and committed no turnovers in their home opener on Sept. 16. | ? |
| The Cowboys Rule: If Dallas rushes for more than 96 yards in its fourth home game, the Republican wins the White House. Otherwise, the Democrat does. | 13/13 | |
| ? | This year: vs. New York Giants on Oct. 28 | ? |
| The Dolphins Rule: If Miami's opponent in its last away game before the election completes at least 19 passes, the Democrat wins. Otherwise, the Republican wins. | 10/11 | |
| ? | This year: at Indianapolis on Nov. 4 | ? |
| The Eagles Rule: If Philadelphia scores at least one offensive touchdown per nine first downs in its second away game, the Democrat wins the White House. Otherwise, the Republican wins. | 15/16 | |
| ? | This year: at Arizona on Sept. 23 | ? |
| The Falcons Rule: If the quarterback for Atlanta throws at least one interception in the Falcons' fifth game of the season, the out-of-power party wins the election. Otherwise, the incumbent party wins. | 11/11 | |
| ? | This year: at Washington on Oct. 7 | ? |
| The Giants Rule: If New York completes at least 60 percent of its passes in its seventh game, the incumbent party wins. Otherwise, the out-of-power party wins. | 11/11 | |
| ? | This year: vs. Washington on Oct. 21 | ? |
| The Jaguars Rule: If Jacksonville completes more than half of its passes in its first away game, the out-of-power party wins. Otherwise, the incumbent party wins. | 4/4 | |
| ? | Romney wins: The Jaguars were 23 for 39 against the Vikings on Sept. 9. | ? |
| The Jets Rule: If the New York Jets win their second away game, the Republican wins the White House. Otherwise, the Democrat wins. | 12/13 | |
| ? | This year: at Miami on Sept. 23 | ? |
| The Lions Rule: If Detroit's opponent is charged with at least 20 percent more penalties than Detroit in the last home game before the election, the Republican wins. Otherwise, the Democrat wins. | 13/13 | |
| ? | This year: vs. Seattle on Oct. 28 | ? |
| The Packers Rule: If Green Bay throws more than one interception per 20 pass attempts in its last game before the election, the Republican wins. Otherwise, the Democrat wins. | 13/13 | |
| ? | This year: vs. Arizona on Nov. 4 | ? |
| The Panthers Rule: If Carolina does not fumble in its third home game, the incumbent party wins the White House. Otherwise, the out-of-power party wins. | 4/4 | |
| ? | This year: vs. Seattle on Oct. 7 | ? |
| The Patriots Rule: If New England commits fewer turnovers than its opponent in its first away game, the out-of-power party wins the White House. Otherwise, the incumbent party wins. | 12/13 | |
| ? | Romney wins: The Patriots committed zero turnovers to the Titans' two on Sept. 9. | ? |
| The Raiders Rule: If Oakland does not advance at least 358 yards in its fourth home game, the Democrat wins. Otherwise, the Republican wins. | 13/13 | |
| ? | This year: vs. Jacksonville on Oct. 21 | ? |
| The Rams Rule: If St. Louis averages at least one fumble per eight first downs in its first game, the Democrat wins. Fewer than that, the Republican wins. | 13/13 | |
| ? | Obama wins: The Rams fumbled twice and achieved only 14 first downs against Detroit on Sept. 9. | ? |
| The Ravens Rule: If Baltimore wins its third-to-last away game before the election, the Republican wins. Otherwise, the Democrat wins. | 4/4 | |
| ? | This year: Oct. 7 at Kansas City. | ? |
| The Saints Rule: If New Orleans tallies more first downs than its opponent in the team's fourth away game, the out-of-power party wins the White House. Otherwise the incumbent party wins. | 11/11 | |
| ? | This year: at Denver on Oct. 28 | ? |
| The Seahawks Rule: If Seattle gets at least 18 first downs in its third-to-last game before the election, the incumbent party wins. Otherwise, the out-of-power party wins. | 9/9 | |
| ? | This year: at San Francisco on Oct. 18 | ? |
| The Steelers Rule: If Pittsburgh rushes for more yards than it passes in the Steelers' first home game, the Democrat wins. Otherwise, the Republican wins. | 15/17 | |
| ? | Romney wins: The Steelers advanced 107 yards on the ground and 130 in the air en route to defeating the Raiders on Sept. 12 | ? |
| The Texans Rule: If the Houston Texans win their second away game, the Republican wins the White House. Otherwise, the Democrat wins. | 2/2 | |
| ? | This year: at Denver on Sept. 23 | ? |
| The Titans Rule: If Tennessee fumbles at least twice in its second away game, the incumbent party wins the White House. Otherwise, the out-of-power party wins. | 13/13 | |
| ? | This year: at Houston on Sept. 30 | ? |
| The Vikings Rule: If Minnesota scores five or fewer points for every turnover the Vikings' opponent commits in the team's third home game, the incumbent party holds the White House. Otherwise, the out-of-power party wins. | 11/12 | |
| ? | This year: vs. Tennessee on Oct. 7 | ? |
Follow Chris Wilson at @chriswilsondc or email him at cewilson@yahoo-inc.com.
Correction, 3:28 p.m. ET, September 21: This column originally stated that the Redskins Rule failed once, in 2000. It originally held up in 2000 and failed in 2004, but has since been amended to work in 2004 at the expense of its accuracy in 2000.
Source: http://news.yahoo.com/your-nfl-team-can-predict-the-election.html
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